He is likely to get 45 + percent of the vote, 40 percent is definitely underrating him.
He may get more, when 56 percent say they are better off than four years ago, according to Gallup, he still has the ability to win. Whether he will or not is another matter, but tens of millions have seen their lives bettered by his policies, and for that they will forgive him.
We have little differences as to the quality of the man, he is a bully, his persona is odious, and it gets worse from there. Nonetheless he has brought an improved life to many, and for that they are grateful.