My understanding is that it takes four justices to grant a writ.
Doesn't Gorsuch's and Robert's votes in Boystock(my preferred spelling), guaranty that discrimination cannot be extended based on either sex or gender? That should cover marriage equality,shouldn't it?
Even if the free exercise clause of the First Amendment were granted, that merely requires that minister, and such, not be forced to carry out marriage. There are Justices of the Peace for that.
Unless they are going to undo the public access rights, embedded in the Civil Rights jurisprudence, it seems unlikely, they will have any luck, beyond Thomas and Alito, the rest are just not that far right, at least in my view.